Has the Rubicon Already Been Crossed?

It feels like something changed this summer.

Until this summer, I thought that the Church of England would hold to its received, biblical understanding of marriage, and would patiently and firmly resist calls to bless same-sex relationships of any description or allow its leaders to live in such relationships. 

At least, I thought it would hold out up to the time I am due to retire; about ten years from now.

Pressure from the media, politicians, secular lobby groups and vocal minorities in the church has of course been relentless for years, but the sheer volume of cries for 'inclusivity' (meaning the endorsement of sinful behaviour as good rather than the acceptance of people as loved) is now deafening.

I have changed my mind. I think the dam is about to burst and it will lead to a permanent split in the Church of England, such as has already happened in the USA. Since the split there after 2003, the established Episcopal Church haemorrhaged spectacularly in membership whilst the breakaway Anglican Church in America has grown healthily.

Alexander Griswold writes: "Every major American church that has taken steps towards liberalization of sexual issues has seen a steep decline in membership. In 2003, Gene Robinson became the first openly gay, noncelibate man to be consecrated as a bishop of the Episcopal Church. In the wake of his consecration, entire dioceses severed ties with the Episcopal Church, eventually creating the Anglican Church in North America (ACNA). But the Episcopal Church continued to liberalize its sexual teachings, lifting a moratorium on any more gay bishops and creating a "blessing ceremony" for gay couples in 2009. In 2002, the number of baptized US members of the Episcopal Church stood at 2.32 million. By 2012, that number had fallen to 1.89 million, a decline of 18.4 percent. Meanwhile, attendance has fallen even more steeply. Average Sunday attendance in its U.S. churches was 846,000 in 2002, but had fallen 24.4 percent by 2012 to only 640,000. Other signs of congregational liveliness have fallen even further. Baptisms have fallen by 39.6 percent, and marriages have fallen by 44.9 percent. As for the ACNA? It's seen its membership rise by 13 percent and its Sunday attendance rise by 16 percent in the past five years. Since 2009, the ACNA has planted 488 new congregations. In 2012, the entire Episcopal Church managed to plant four new churches."

I have long set out the acceptance and promotion of same-sex relationships as a theological line in the sand. It is an absolute spiritual dead-end. It cannot produce life and will lead to decline and church closures.

We have, all of a sudden, from nowhere, come perilously close to crossing the Rubicon. We may already have crossed it.

This looks like a slow motion train crash. Things may come to a head and get settled with some decisive action and unequivocal leadership by senior clergy in the Church of England. Or not. It may get much worse. I may feel I have no choice but to resign my orders and vacate my home. Or find alternative oversight in another church structure.